Risk Adjusted Months to Cover mNAV

Risk Adjusted Months to Cover mNAV measures how many months it will take for a company to reach its target market Net Asset Value (mNAV), typically a value of “1” (meaning each share is fully backed by bitcoin assets), after adjusting for risks such as income volatility, non-recurring gains, or operational uncertainty.

Formula: Risk Adj. Months to Cover = Months to Cover × Risk Adjustment Factor This adjustment provides a more conservative, realistic estimate than the “raw” months-to-cover metric by accounting for obstacles that could slow progress (unexpected expenses, downturns, unreliable earnings, etc.).

Why Is This Metric Important?

Reflects Real-World Uncertainty: Companies rarely achieve theoretical goals on a perfectly smooth path. Adjusting for risk acknowledges volatility in bitcoin price, interruptions in yield, and operational surprises.

Improved Peer Comparisons: Not all companies face the same risks. The adjusted metric levels the playing field so you can better compare firms with reliable, recurring BTC yield to those working with less predictable income streams or higher business risk.

Protects Against Over-Optimism: Raw months-to-cover numbers can be misleading for companies that generate “windfall” BTC or have spotty earning histories. The risk adjustment adds a safety margin for more thoughtful investment analysis.